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A Stock Market Crash is coming! |
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| By o7media - 10-27-2011, 07:27 PM - Boxden > The Money Spot (finance/careers) I already know some people will debate me on this ...the trolls who think the economy is perfect and Obama is god.  First off, the long term charts are very very bearish. Not only is there a bearish M-A pattern forming on the monthly S&P charts (if you go back 20 years or so), but there's also a H&S pattern forming. (see below)  Now on the weekly charts we're forming a H&S pattern also (see below). Again, very bearish... The charts prior to the 2008 crash are identical to what we're currently forming.  ................ Ok forget about the charts now, those may not play out. But let's check out the fundamentals: For one, the U.S. debt is much much higher than it was in 2008. Europe is falling to pieces, China has warned of a soft economy, Australia has slow growth, etc, etc. Secondly, companies are NOT in a better shape then they were 3 years ago. Some are, the big names like AAPL, GOOG, etc. But for the majority they're not. People seem to think earnings are great when they beat, but that's because analysts revise them down constantly due to the economy. Banks are failing left and right and losing money. The banks are worse off than they were in 2008. Thirdly, jobs suck. Jobs are not growing, the unemployment rate is much higher than what is said in the monthly data. Numbers are skewed and again, they're revised down 90% of the time just like earnings. Finally, for those who want to argue and say the economy is a little better than what we saw in 2008. Fine... even if it is ..and that's a big IF.... but just to humor you, let's say the economy is slightly better.............. So, in 2008 the Dow Jones hit a low of about 6,500, and from there on it pretty much doubled right? How does that reflect the economic situation if the markets doubled in 3 years? Have the economy and businesses grown 200% in the past 3 years...the economy must be great for that to happen. Basically, the valuation of the markets is not justifiable. Neither is Gold, Silver, or Oil. If i'm right about what will happen next year, we will break the 2008 lows. Gold, Silver, and Oil will all go back to 2008 lows when Gas was in the $1 range. What do you do to prepare for this and make money on it? Here are some things: 1. You invest in the USD (US Dollar). 2. You short Gold, Silver, and Oil 3. You short the markets This is the opportunity for millions. It's how people get rich.... Of course, I could be wrong and we could go higher. But that above is my take on what's going to happen in the near future.  Now get a mod to sticky this !!.  |
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| 10-27-2011, 07:56 PM | away - #2 |
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| 10-27-2011, 08:05 PM | away - #3 | |||
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| 10-27-2011, 08:35 PM | away - #4 |
| One more thing I should add.... For the people who think Gold and Silver are the best investments ever, you're wrong. Do not buy it. I'm gonna tell you why using Gold as an example... First off, Gold is a BACKING to the USD. The USD is king. Gold can never be a primary currency because of the fact it's a limited resource. Gold can not support a population of this size that is growing. You won't be able to go into a Wal-Mart and buy your groceries with a chunk of Gold... The problem is, if Gold skyrockets to $10,000 an ounce like some dumb[..] analysts predict then the USD will be completely worthless.... Now how are you going to buy Gold with a useless currency? What sane person will take a worthless piece of paper (USD) in exchange for Gold which is the new currency? Then they'll be stuck with something that is devaluing by the second. The only other option is to go back to the barter system and trade for Gold. But that's not realistic at all. And since today everything runs on credit it's even more impossible. It's not possible at all. If the Dollar devalues to that point we will be in the ranks of Zimbabwe. | |
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| 10-27-2011, 08:51 PM | away - #5 |
| I'll say 2 more things... I told people not to buy Silver in April saying it would pullback. A couple weeks later Silver started a huge drop of about 40% over the next few weeks. You can see that thread here: I also called the flash crash last year ...if I find the link I'll post it later on. But I'm posting this just to say, take what I'm saying for what it's worth. | |
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| 10-27-2011, 09:17 PM | away - #6 |
| :ohnos: | |
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| 10-27-2011, 09:28 PM | away - #7 | |
Post #1809 ..about half way down the page.... 5-4-2011 "I do think today was the last straw the markets could take. And I do believe that this is the start of a correction. If not a correction, at least a semi-major plunge. Either way, it should be a great money making opportunity." Dow Jones closed at 10,926 on that day. 2 days later came the flash crash and we fell to a low of 9,869. Dropped over 1,000 points in those 2 days. :dancingcool::dancingcool: | ||
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| 10-27-2011, 09:31 PM | online - #8 |
| If people DON'T know that the U.S. economy sucks then they need to do some homework. I can't disagree w/ what you have posted but this country and it's political bull!! aren't making things any easier. Good analysis. | |
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| 10-27-2011, 09:33 PM | away - #9 |
| so dictate more on how we can "make millions" from this proposed crash [pic] | |
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| 10-27-2011, 10:44 PM | away - #10 |
| if you believe the US economy stinks, why go long the USD? also, i'm pretty sure the US dollar has not been backed by gold for quite some time. i think if you believe what you say your best trade is to long the VXX or ss XIV | |
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| 10-27-2011, 11:09 PM | away - #11 |
| I got really lucky in the last recession.. I had a feeling the economy was going to crumble.. Took all of the money I saved for my kid's college fund that was in mutual funds and got it in a guaranteed 4.5% high interest account. Shorted stocks like Google and Apple when they were hitting all-time highs. Admittedly, you can't depend on gut feelings, and it's far from scientific.. I'm anticipating another crash (it's kind of !!-ish and parasitic, but whatever), and trying to find the best way to invest.. I'm not exactly sure I agree with investing in the USD. The USD has been shoddy as hell the last few years and while it is relatively st@ble, I've personally seen it lose about 10% on the Canadian Dollar during the hard times. As the economy of the US has gotten worse, the price of gold has gone UP. It was barely $700 an ounce at the end of the year 2007. It has nothing to do with its use, but its value relative to currencies with no backing except government law (fiat money) makes it an investment that is worthwhile. Correct me if I'm wrong, but for the last 10 years, gold has not once gone down in value from one year to the other, it has consistently gone up in value. Maybe there is a bubble being created and the paper value of gold exceeds its actual value with investors, but I'd call it one of the better investments. What computer program is that btw? | |
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| 10-27-2011, 11:12 PM | away - #12 |
| My nicca. This thread just inspired the !! out of me to research about this !!. Yo, I know you a busy man, but can you host like a weekly meeting or some !! where you can teach us different things? This may be too much to ask, but I think lots of niccaz on here could use the feedback and knowledge. | |
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| 10-27-2011, 11:23 PM | away - #13 | ||
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| 10-27-2011, 11:48 PM | away - #14 |
| greatly appreciated, for those that dont wanna believe dont read, this is here for those that wanna learn and learn together with different input and ideas on what will come to be | |
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| 10-28-2011, 12:42 AM | away - #15 |
| *sigh* all eyes and ears with this. Gonna be soaking up game on these two channels. Dropping them to share the wealth. | |
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| 10-28-2011, 05:51 AM | away - #16 | ||
UUP is the safest play IMO because there's very little premium to be paid. But the gains will be smaller. The VXX would probably bring the most gains, but it's much more riskier because of the price. There are also other options like shorting the SPY, DIA, QQQ, etc... Last edited by o7media; 10-28-2011 at 06:13 AM.. | |||
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| 10-28-2011, 06:09 AM | away - #17 | ||
During a bear market or crash, equities fall meaning people are not buying them. They're selling the equities and holding their cash which increases the USD and devalues commodities at the same time. Look at the UUP just recently since the August correction. It went from about $21 to $22.60 during that correction. The reason I'm looking at UUP is because the LEAPS are extremely cheap, they're much safer compared to something like the VIX or SPY. Right now the UUP January 2013 22x calls are only trading at .90. And it's OTM by less than $1. During the 2008 crash UUP went from about $22 to $27. There would be plenty of intrinsic value on those calls. And I expect the markets to go lower than what they were at in 2008. You can do the VXX or actual $VIX index too. That's a very good play, a lot more riskier but it's something I'm considering.
Not only that but the stupid quantitate easing programs that the FED has done to prop up the markets has devalued the USD. It's one of the reasons I believe the USD is very undervalued. And Gold has dropped year over year during the 2008 crash. It was at about $1,000 an ounce before the crash, and it bottomed at around $700 in '08. The same thing will happen in the next crash, except it will be a much larger sell off because Gold is ridiculously overpriced [pic] edit: oh and that's Etrade Pro edit: In the recent correction that started in August, Gold fell about $300 an ounce from a little over $1,900 to the $1,600's I believe. And that was just a correction ... If a crash does come it should head back for $1,000 an ounce IMO. Last edited by o7media; 10-28-2011 at 06:30 AM.. | |||
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| 10-28-2011, 06:18 AM | away - #18 | |||
But a crash doesn't happen too often, that's why I'm posting this lol
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| 10-28-2011, 06:44 AM | away - #19 |
| How are you planning to long the USD? Just looking at the FXE (USD vs. Euro) you can see the USD got k!lled during the last crash so based on that i would have to disagree that USD rises during a crash. On a side note i am long the FXE from 138ish..... With a crash comes more volatiliy....people panic and that causes increased price action...vxx is the S&P Volatility etf if the vxx is too expensive then look at the XIV...It's just the inverse etf....ss xiv if you think crash..... | |
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| 10-28-2011, 07:15 AM | away - #20 | |
Umm no the dollar went up during the crash, as it goes up during market weakness. Stocks and the dollar have an inverse relationship. Look at the USD index and the recent correction... Not sure what you're looking at but either it's the wrong chart or you're looking at it upside down? lol The VXX isn't about the price being more expensive, it's about it being riskier. It is something I'm considering though, either I'll go long on UUP (January 2013 LEAPS) or long on VXX (Jan 2013 LEAPS). I haven't decided yet, I was originally considering SPY puts, but realized it wasn't worth it. Here's the DXY (Dollar Index) ..look at 2008. Here's the UUP (Bull USD) [pic] Here's the UUP and $DJI overlaid on it: [pic] | ||
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