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A Stock Market Crash is coming!


 A Stock Market Crash is coming!
 11-16-2011, 02:06 PMaway - #101
philly337 14 heat pts14

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Haven't checked trendline but pretty close to support on the wedge...if it breaks that spy going to 122.50
 11-16-2011, 02:12 PMonline - #102
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by philly337
Haven't checked trendline but pretty close to support on the wedge...if it breaks that spy going to 122.50
It closed right at support. Was hoping to see it break through, which it did but it climbed back in the last few seconds.

But SPY is making new lows in the AH ..so far so good.

Up $1,200 on VIX calls and they're gaining in the AH. Up over $1,300 now as SPY makes new lows.

vvv This was as of the market close.

 11-16-2011, 02:15 PMonline - #103
o7media 10 heat pts10

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^^ Up over $1,500 now.

edit: looks like they just closed at 2.50. So up just over $1,400.
 11-16-2011, 02:20 PMaway - #104
philly337 14 heat pts14

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Originally Posted by o7media
It closed right at support. Was hoping to see it break through, which it did but it climbed back in the last few seconds.

But SPY is making new lows in the AH ..so far so good.

Up $1,200 on VIX calls and they're gaining in the AH. Up over $1,300 now as SPY makes new lows.

vvv This was as of the market close.

I Don't even pay attention to after hours until morning...some news will hit overnight sending it up or down. Past two days right after markets closed it went up but both times the next morning opened down

I do think it will go down tomorrow (been saying that all week though lol). If you need a$surance we'll go down I closed all short positions in cnbc after holding since last week because I was tired of waiting for it to make a move...so you can bet it will tank
 11-16-2011, 02:22 PMonline - #105
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by Andrefrbk
Explain to what exactly is backing USD, what makes a dollar worth a dollar.

Then answer me this based on your answer... Why cant we trade that instead?
If you think Gold is going higher, then buy it. Good luck with that.

But I'd like to know what your basis on the USD weakening is.

What is you basing Gold being a safe haven off of? Have you ever looked at history or are you just pulling answers out of your a$s?
 11-16-2011, 02:24 PMonline - #106
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by philly337
I Don't even pay attention to after hours until morning...some news will hit overnight sending it up or down. Past two days right after markets closed it went up but both times the next morning opened down

I do think it will go down tomorrow (been saying that all week though lol). If you need a$surance we'll go down I closed all short positions in cnbc after holding since last week because I was tired of waiting for it to make a move...so you can bet it will tank
Well we broke major support on the daily so we should at least test 1226 S&P. But yeah you're right, anything can happen overnight.
 11-16-2011, 03:07 PMonline - #107
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by Andrefrbk
I know china has a gold reserve, and is probably going to use it to back the yuan...

I know that Gaddafi wanted make oil sales exclusively with yaun currency...
1. Most countries have a gold reserve...but that doesn't mean anything.

2. Gadaffi is dead ..and what you're saying is speculation.

Here are the facts, and this is what I'm going to leave it at...

Gold has an inverse relationship to the USD. It's a hedge, that's all it is. The USD will forever be king because it's simply paper. The only reason Gold and Silver had such a huge run since 2008 is because of the fed constantly printing money to artificially inflate the stock market which devalues the USD and increases its hedge (i.e. Gold).

However, the fed can't continue to print the U.S. into a Zimbabwe type scenario. Gold can never be used as a primary currency because it can't support our population as it is a limited resource.

And the facts are that during market weakness causes Gold to go down and the USD to go up.

History shows and proves this in every single market crash and correction. Even during the recent market correction Gold dropped from $1,900 to like $1,600 in less than a month. And that was just a correction....
 11-16-2011, 03:43 PMaway - #108
Chaos 370 heat pts370

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I bought some SPY puts at the end of the day. Markets aren't going anywhere this week, and I have Calls on a few stocks anyway. You can't go wrong hedging during these times anyways
 11-16-2011, 03:58 PMaway - #109
Ed Bundy 

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how do i open an etrade account?
 11-16-2011, 04:11 PMaway - #110
Chaos 370 heat pts370

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^ go to e-trade.com and open an account....
 11-16-2011, 04:18 PMonline - #111
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by iNsane
I bought some SPY puts at the end of the day. Markets aren't going anywhere this week, and I have Calls on a few stocks anyway. You can't go wrong hedging during these times anyways


Originally Posted by Ed Bundy
how do i open an etrade account?
vvv

Originally Posted by iNsane
^ go to e-trade.com and open an account....


edit: actually etrade.com lol ..but yeah it explains the steps there.
 11-16-2011, 05:21 PMonline - #112
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by BlaKc
there's a big difference between can't and won't. They can print those bucks till they are completely worthless which is whats going on right now, you're basically depending on some kind of decrease in inflation because you think that these people won't purposely k!ll the currency. I expect the opposite. The dollar will continue to weaken and decrease in value while the worth of gold and silver will continue a st@ble incline. FIAT currencies always, especially one like ours with a $10 for every $1 fractional reserve system. The smart long term investment to me just seems like a common sense decision because gold will ALWAYS have some kind of worth while the dollar can easily become nothing but a useless piece of paper at any given moment



That's not true because it's based on the economy, not whether the fed will continue to print or not. If the economy is not growing (which it's not), people will not invest money in the markets. Companies are not growing their revenues and it will k!ll stocks.

The stock market is artificially inflated, it's a bubble... every bubble bursts, just like Gold is.

The economy is just one big cycle, another market crash is inevitable whether it's today, tomorrow, or next year.

Gold will always have a value, yes that's true. But Gold's true value is not this high. It's artificially inflated along with stocks.

And no the dollar will never be a worthless piece of paper because of the fact that we NEED the dollar every single day. Not only is Gold a non renewable resource, but it's simply not realistic to be used for every day things in a growing population. The whole Gold safe haven is complete BS.
 11-16-2011, 05:26 PMonline - #113
o7media 10 heat pts10

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The only reason you guys should be bullish on Gold is if you honestly believe the economy is getting better and/or the valuation of our current stock market is correct.

It's as simple as this:

If I'm correct, a depression is coming for the U.S....

A depression = A period of deflation because the prices of everything will drop as demand drops.

During deflation the USD rises and Gold and other commodities drop. They have inverse relationships...


And even if you think the economy will continue to get better, the Fed will have no reason to continue printing money. No matter what, Gold will go back down.

It is not practical or logical for commodities to be at this level.
 11-16-2011, 07:30 PMaway - #114
ahenson 55 heat pts55

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Originally Posted by Andrefrbk
You know im telling the truth...

Keep playing the white mans version of corner dice gambling for dollars.

Derivatives...................

The future of the stock market does not exist.

2012 will be the end of it. And the USD with it.
Derivatives were brought to Europe by black people, Moors. But anyways, 07media is going in, people should definitely be using the options vehicles to short some indexes because we will see a lot of defaults and capital flight within the next few months.

Don't just pay attention to equities though, look into commodities. Every should be aware of most of the commodity's inverse relationship to stock market trends, if not go read the commodity index booklet for historical prices.

I will be shorting some of the euromarket instruments, in particular eurodollar futures, as soon as my software gives me the signal.
 11-16-2011, 07:47 PMonline - #115
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by ahenson
Derivatives were brought to Europe by black people, Moors. But anyways, 07media is going in, people should definitely be using the options vehicles to short some indexes because we will see a lot of defaults and capital flight within the next few months.

Don't just pay attention to equities though, look into commodities. Every should be aware of most of the commodity's inverse relationship to stock market trends, if not go read the commodity index booklet for historical prices.

I will be shorting some of the euromarket instruments, in particular eurodollar futures, as soon as my software gives me the signal.
 11-16-2011, 08:39 PMonline - #116
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by Andrefrbk
In terms of OUR current economic structure, i dont see the correlation between a commodity such gold, and the market.


In the 2008 market crash Gold fell from over $1,000 an ounce to below $700. The Dow fell from about 14,000 to 6,500. Dow lost just over half of it's value, Gold lost about 30 - 35%.

Since the 2008 crash the Dow went from 6,500 to just under 13,000. It about doubled in value. While Gold went from about $700 to $1,900. Up about 170% since the 2008 crash....

In the recent correction Gold fell from about $1,900 to $1,600 losing about 15% of its value. The Dow fell from about 12,700 to 10,600...losing about 20% of its value.

The difference now is that the Gold/Silver run has actually become a bubble. They are extremely overvalued which is why you saw it drop $300 an ounce in 3 weeks. The same thing happened to Silver back in May. It lost 20% of its value in like a week..and it still hasn't recovered.

So during the next crash Gold will lose more than 30-35% of its value unlike the last one. Gold will go back below $1,000 an ounce IMO. Probably towards $700-800.

Gold has a direct relationship to equities, wether you believe it or not. You should really do your research and look at historical charts instead of listening to the news
 11-16-2011, 09:46 PMaway - #117
Chaos 370 heat pts370

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Originally Posted by o7media


In the 2008 market crash Gold fell from over $1,000 an ounce to below $700. The Dow fell from about 14,000 to 6,500. Dow lost just over half of it's value, Gold lost about 30 - 35%.

Since the 2008 crash the Dow went from 6,500 to just under 13,000. It about doubled in value. While Gold went from about $700 to $1,900. Up about 170% since the 2008 crash....

In the recent correction Gold fell from about $1,900 to $1,600 losing about 15% of its value. The Dow fell from about 12,700 to 10,600...losing about 20% of its value.

The difference now is that the Gold/Silver run has actually become a bubble. They are extremely overvalued which is why you saw it drop $300 an ounce in 3 weeks. The same thing happened to Silver back in May. It lost 20% of its value in like a week..and it still hasn't recovered.

So during the next crash Gold will lose more than 30-35% of its value unlike the last one. Gold will go back below $1,000 an ounce IMO. Probably towards $700-800.

Gold has a direct relationship to equities, wether you believe it or not. You should really do your research and look at historical charts instead of listening to the news
Nice post...but one question.

I'm not fond of listening to analysts or CNBC for that matter because they tell us what they're paid to tell us, not what we want to hear...but hedge fund managers are saying gold will go back up as the equity market goes down. I think it'd be wrong for us to say they don't know what they're talking about, but would you have a clue on why they would say such a thing?

I don't plan to get too complex in this market anyway. Just usual put positions and I won't even be doing that in stocks. Just the SPY and DIA.
 11-16-2011, 09:48 PMaway - #118
hockeythug 48 heat pts48

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Originally Posted by iNsane
but hedge fund managers are saying gold will go back up as the equity market goes down. I think it'd be wrong for us to say they don't know what they're talking about, but would you have a clue on why they would say such a thing?
They have positions in gold. They have their own agenda as well.
 11-17-2011, 05:35 AMaway - #119
philly337 14 heat pts14

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Originally Posted by philly337
Haven't checked trendline but pretty close to support on the wedge...if it breaks that spy going to 122.50
Spy $122.90 right now..if we don't rally before market opens should test 122.50
 11-17-2011, 06:34 AMonline - #120
o7media 10 heat pts10

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Originally Posted by iNsane
Nice post...but one question.

I'm not fond of listening to analysts or CNBC for that matter because they tell us what they're paid to tell us, not what we want to hear...but hedge fund managers are saying gold will go back up as the equity market goes down. I think it'd be wrong for us to say they don't know what they're talking about, but would you have a clue on why they would say such a thing?

I don't plan to get too complex in this market anyway. Just usual put positions and I won't even be doing that in stocks. Just the SPY and DIA.

Originally Posted by hockeythug
They have positions in gold. They have their own agenda as well.
This.

And they can just simply be wrong. Hell Warren Buffet had a stake in Goldman Sachs when it was at like $150...now look at it. He lost billions on that.

Hedge fund managers thought banks were good buys too and they've done nothing but go down.
 
 


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