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 The OFFICIAL Boxden Sports Betting Discussion
 09-20-2011, 06:44 PMonline - #101
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Section80
Hmm...when I 1st saw the odds on that ND/Pitt, I immediately thought about Notre Dame beating them in a shootout. But just off basic research, I may have to lean toward Pitt (Not placing but in general). They commit fewer turnovers and they average even MORE yrds through the air than ND, and we all see how Michigan's D. Rob did their secondary. Plus, the last 7 times at home, Pitt has covered the spread all but ONCE...I don't know if I'll place on that game but I definitely will need to some more extensive looking into it before I made a decision. That's a close call.


And nah, I wouldn't never pay for those pro cappers. I look at some of their free picks from the previous weeks just to get a good handle on their percentage and half the time, most of em be horrible. They probably don't even do half the research that some of us on here do. Plus, it's too many resources on this World Wide Web to not be able to get a good handle on things yourself. And that's even increased when you got a thread like this. Though I do like to hear others opinions just to make sure I'm looking at every game from various angles.

PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[304] BYU -2˝-115
[322] MIAMI FLORIDA -12˝-110
[341] LSU -6-105
[344] MICHIGAN -10-105
[349] NOTRE DAME -6˝-110
[383] USC +2˝-105

Could you point out the weaknesses? I've est@blished the doubt about the ND pick.
 09-20-2011, 06:45 PMaway - #102
NJallD 41 heat pts41

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risking:$65.00 to win:$416.32
3 Team Parlay
395 San Francisco 49ers +1˝ +105* vs Cincinnati Bengals
397 New England Patriots -9˝ +100* vs Buffalo Bills
413 New York Jets -3˝ +100* vs Oakland Raiders
 09-20-2011, 06:47 PMonline - #103
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by NJallD
risking:$65.00 to win:$416.32
3 Team Parlay
395 San Francisco 49ers +1˝ +105* vs Cincinnati Bengals
397 New England Patriots -9˝ +100* vs Buffalo Bills
413 New York Jets -3˝ +100* vs Oakland Raiders
Everybody online thinks the 49ers will win, most of the people I speak to offline are leaning Bengals. What gives?
 09-20-2011, 06:50 PMaway - #104
NJallD 41 heat pts41

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Originally Posted by thatruest
Everybody online thinks the 49ers will win, most of the people I speak to offline are leaning Bengals. What gives?
I just think the niners have too much talent to lose to a team with as little talent as the bengals. imo 9ers should be 2-0, they have the number 1 rush D in the league..not sure just a gut feeling
 09-20-2011, 07:06 PMonline - #105
thatruest 1 heat pts

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I'm confident in this. How does this look to you?

Sep 25
NFL [397] NE PATRIOTS -9EV
NFL [410] CAR PANTHERS -3˝-110
NFL [412] SD CHARGERS -14˝-110
NFL [419] ARI CARDINALS -3˝-105
NFL [422] TOTAL u45˝-110 (GB PACKERS vrs CHI BEARS )
Risking 8 USD To Win 209 USD
 09-20-2011, 07:09 PMonline - #106
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Section80
Hmm...when I 1st saw the odds on that ND/Pitt, I immediately thought about Notre Dame beating them in a shootout. But just off basic research, I may have to lean toward Pitt (Not placing but in general). They commit fewer turnovers and they average even MORE yrds through the air than ND, and we all see how Michigan's D. Rob did their secondary. Plus, the last 7 times at home, Pitt has covered the spread all but ONCE...I don't know if I'll place on that game but I definitely will need to some more extensive looking into it before I made a decision. That's a close call.


And nah, I wouldn't never pay for those pro cappers. I look at some of their free picks from the previous weeks just to get a good handle on their percentage and half the time, most of em be horrible. They probably don't even do half the research that some of us on here do. Plus, it's too many resources on this World Wide Web to not be able to get a good handle on things yourself. And that's even increased when you got a thread like this. Though I do like to hear others opinions just to make sure I'm looking at every game from various angles.
NCAA Good Bets: LSU, Michigan, & USC.

Does anybody have any more?
 09-20-2011, 07:14 PMonline - #107
thatruest 1 heat pts

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NFL Good Bets:
Patriots, -9 &/or Over
Ravens, -4.5
Jets, -3.5 *Want to hear why everyone's CONVINCED about the Jets*
Panthers, -3.5
Packers/Bears - Under
Cardinals, -3.5
Chargers, -14.5
Steelers, -10.5 (Some are unsure)

Haven't heard enough about 49ers @Bengals. Dolphins @Browns.
Does that sound about right?
 09-20-2011, 07:20 PMaway - #108
TraV 71 heat pts71

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Originally Posted by thatruest
PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[304] BYU -2˝-115
[322] MIAMI FLORIDA -12˝-110
[341] LSU -6-105
[344] MICHIGAN -10-105
[349] NOTRE DAME -6˝-110
[383] USC +2˝-105

Could you point out the weaknesses? I've est@blished the doubt about the ND pick.

Well me personally, I'm a defensive dude. I feel like if you can stop the opposing teams bread & butter and keep it simple on your side then you have a high chance of winning. It's why I love going with LSU b/c they have some of the most PROFESSIONAL defense I've seen. So I have nothing to say about that pick.

I like the USC pick. I think they will be too much for Ari State.

I'll be surprised if Robinson & Michigan don't close out San Diego. Just don't know if it will be 10 or more.

I already told you about ND. On the flipside for that though, Pitt ain't got too much of a defense themselves so ND can easily cover that given the circumstances. Like I said, that one is close.

I bet on UTAH last week vs BYU b/c they don't score a lot (13.0 per game) and they don't have the DEF to keep themselves in games like that. On the other hand, Central Florida scores A LOT and doesn't allow over 100 yrds rushing OR passing. The impressive for anybody. And they beat Boston out of the ACC confere4nce. Plus, in the last 6 games as an underdog, UCF has covered each time. I just can't get with BYU right now.


I can't call that Miami right now.

Remember though, this is just MY PERSONAL insight. These are just some of the things I look at it when making picks. Maybe somebody else feel different.
 09-20-2011, 07:22 PMonline - #109
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Section80
Well me personally, I'm a defensive dude. I feel like if you can stop the opposing teams bread & butter and keep it simple on your side then you have a high chance of winning. It's why I love going with LSU b/c they have some of the most PROFESSIONAL defense I've seen. So I have nothing to say about that pick.

I like the USC pick. I think they will be too much for Ari State.

I'll be surprised if Robinson & Michigan don't close out San Diego. Just don't know if it will be 10 or more.

I already told you about ND. On the flipside for that though, Pitt ain't got too much of a defense themselves so ND can easily cover that given the circumstances. Like I said, that one is close.

I bet on UTAH last week vs BYU b/c they don't score a lot (13.0 per game) and they don't have the DEF to keep themselves in games like that. On the other hand, Central Florida scores A LOT and doesn't allow over 100 yrds rushing OR passing. The impressive for anybody. And they beat Boston out of the ACC confere4nce. Plus, in the last 6 games as an underdog, UCF has covered each time. I just can't get with BYU right now.


I can't call that Miami right now.

Remember though, this is just MY PERSONAL insight. These are just some of the things I look at it when making picks. Maybe somebody else feel different.
Good ####. I'll do a secondary worth $8 & drop BYU & Miami (being that if they do win, I'd have them covered in this one). I'll look into the Michigan game though.
 09-20-2011, 07:25 PMonline - #110
thatruest 1 heat pts

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We should start rating the group of tiers. So the 3-4 games in which you're MOST confident in are in Tier 1 & etc. It would serve as a confidence rating, or so to speak. Keep bringing in your ideas. One day we'll be on the same page & this thread will be on some serious ####. Great stuff so far.
 09-20-2011, 07:26 PMaway - #111
TraV 71 heat pts71

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Originally Posted by NJallD
I just think the niners have too much talent to lose to a team with as little talent as the bengals. imo 9ers should be 2-0, they have the number 1 rush D in the league..not sure just a gut feeling

I think that 49ers as underdog gonna be a sleeper pick this week. Might have to roll with it myself. From what I've seen, everybody likes the Bengals though. But I don't think they pull it off.
 09-20-2011, 09:09 PMonline - #112
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Section80
I think that 49ers as underdog gonna be a sleeper pick this week. Might have to roll with it myself. From what I've seen, everybody likes the Bengals though. But I don't think they pull it off.
Cincy's rush defense vs. Gore
SF's rush defense vs. Benson


Is that how you're looking at it? That's how I am.
 09-20-2011, 09:32 PMaway - #113
TraV 71 heat pts71

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Originally Posted by thatruest
Cincy's rush defense vs. Gore
SF's rush defense vs. Benson


Is that how you're looking at it? That's how I am.

That's exactly how I'm looking at it.
 09-20-2011, 09:38 PMonline - #114
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Perplexity
Yep, the only game I bet on that legitimately concerns me is the packers/bears. On paper the Pack should shred them but that's why they play the games, Bears seem to always rise to the occasion when the Packers are involved. I treated that game like that Steelers game and didn't put much down on it.

I made 9 damn bets already, very unlike me but I had to do it. Week 4 is lookin as far as match ups go, really only a couple stand out games for week 4. Of course the Lions are gonna shred the cowboys a$s most likely but idk if I can bring myself to bet against my boys...

Betting the Under might be a good idea in that Packers vs. Bears game.
 09-20-2011, 09:39 PMonline - #115
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Section80
That's exactly how I'm looking at it.
I feel pretty good about the knowledge most of you have on the game of football. I had my doubts going into this thread. But this is getting pretty dope.


I'm feeling that I'm on my low risk, big reward parlay. Putting $8 dollars into. This is a rough draft:


Jets, -3.5
Panthers, -3.5
Chargers, -14.5
Lions, -3.5
49ers, +2.5
Patriots, -9
Cardinals, -3.5
GB/CHI -Under
Falcons, +1.5 (still thinking about this, need help)
Ravens, -4.5

Last edited by thatruest; 09-20-2011 at 09:47 PM..
 09-20-2011, 09:59 PMonline - #116
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Spiffy
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

This game is going to be a shoot out, jump on the over while you can, I got big $$ on that
Hell yeah. Which ones the better over/under: Pats @Bills. (over), Packers @Bears (under)

Last edited by thatruest; 09-20-2011 at 10:36 PM..
 09-20-2011, 10:02 PMaway - #117
Cowboys All Day 17 heat pts17

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Found this on a different forum I check out for betting... pretty interesting find here, tell me what you think :

this system has a winning record in all weeks 1 to 17 in last 20 years.

what it means is that if you break it down by weeks, it has a winning record over 20 years in weeks 1, 2, 3, ...

not that it wins every week for 20 years (340 weeks would be too much)


now i will try to capp the system by choosing a play or two every week.

this week the plays should be oakland +4, cards +3.5 and rams +6...

but i will only go with oakland +4 and arizona +3.5

those are the official plays...rams are not a play...there are some system reasons to avoid the rams.


almost forgot to say what the system is lol...its simple...

fade favorites of more than 3 pts if they have a divisional game with line pk or dog the following week. its safe to a$sume that buffalo, washington (and giants) will be underdogs next week.

overall record if we faded these faves since 1990: 307-173 ATS
^ As we can see, ram's didn't beat the spread but the poster also said they are not official... I'll be keeping an eye on this throughout the weeks.
 09-20-2011, 10:18 PMonline - #118
thatruest 1 heat pts

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Originally Posted by Perplexity
Found this on a different forum I check out for betting... pretty interesting find here, tell me what you think :



^ As we can see, ram's didn't beat the spread but the poster also said they are not official... I'll be keeping an eye on this throughout the weeks.
I'm too high for this ####. That blew my mind.
 09-20-2011, 10:22 PMaway - #119
Cowboys All Day 17 heat pts17

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Originally Posted by thatruest
I'm too high for this ####. That blew my mind.
I know I was like

but if that record is for real then it's still just 56% overall, nothin to bet the house on.
 09-20-2011, 10:26 PMonline - #120
thatruest 1 heat pts

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NFL [395] SF 49ERS +2˝EV
NFL [397] NE PATRIOTS -9EV
NFL [407] DET LIONS -3˝EV
NFL [410] CAR PANTHERS -3˝-110
NFL [412] SD CHARGERS -14˝-110
NFL [413] NY JETS -3˝EV
NFL [419] ARI CARDINALS -3˝-105
NFL [422] TOTAL u45˝-110 (GB PACKERS vrs CHI BEARS )

Risking 8 USD To Win 800 USD
Ticket#: 40364561

Another $8. What do y'all think?
 
 


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